“In less developed nations, the Demographic Transition is beginning to occur, even though many of these countries still have high population growth rates and will continue growing for a few decades at least. But the rate of growth is slowing even in these countries.”

Living Systems

Chapter Eleven

Population

p. 226 As the population increased from 1.6 billion in 1900 to almost 6.8 billion today
United Nations Population Division, Population, Environment and Development: The Concise Report (New York, United Nations, 2001): 1. Available at http://www.un.org/spanish/esa/population/C2001English.pdf

United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision: Highlights (New York, United Nations, 2009): vii. Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_highlights.pdf
p. 226 we will add the equivalent of another China's worth of people by 2025
Note:
This is based on a calculation assuming the current rate of increase of 79 million people per year, as reported in:
United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision: Highlights (New York, United Nations, 2009): ix. Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_highlights.pdf

An additional 79 million people per year for 16 years (from 2009 to 2025) results in a total of approximately 1.26 million people. This is roughly equivalent to China's population as of July 2009 (1.34 billion people, according to the CIA World Factbook: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html).
p. 226 Global Population Growth and Carbon Emissions [Graphic]

United Nations Population Division, World Population to 2300 (New York, United Nations, 2004). Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf

T.A. Boden, G. Marland, and R.J. Andrews, Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN: 2009). Available at http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_glob.html

Population A.D. 1–1950: United States Census, “Historical Estimates of World Population.” Available at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html

Projected annual carbon emissions: Paul Harrison and Fred Pearce, AAAS Atlas of Population and Environment, American Association for the Advancement of Science and the University of California Press, 2001. Available at http://www.unfpa.org/swp/2001/presskit/figure6.htm
p. 228 the world can now look forward to a stabilized global population
United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision: Highlights (New York, United Nations, 2009): 1. Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_highlights.pdf
p. 228 visionary agreement reached at the 1994 United Nations International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo
United Nations, International Conference on Population and Development, last accessed November 3, 2009. Available at http://www.un.org/popin/icpd2.htm
p. 229 have isolated the four factors that bring about a shift
United Nations, Report of the International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo, UN, September 5-13, 1994). Available at http://www.un.org/popin/icpd/conference/offeng/poa.html
p. 229 44 of the 45 developed nations with populations over 100,000
United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision: Highlights (New York, United Nations, 2009): xi. Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_highlights.pdf

Note:
The report now says that all 45 developed countries have below-replacement fertility. When the report was first released, it claimed, as the text states, that 44 out of the 45 developed countries have below-replacement fertility. See here: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/pressrelease.pdf
p. 229 New demographic analyses completed in 2009 show the beginning of a surprising new trend
Myrskylä, Mikko, Hans-Peter Kohler, and Francesco C. Billari, “Advances in development reverse fertility declines,” Nature 460 (August 6, 2009): 741-743. Available at http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v460/n7256/abs/nature08230.html
p. 231 without immigration, the developed countries taken as a group
United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision: Highlights (New York, United Nations, 2009): vii. Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_highlights.pdf
p. 231 the growth in the U.S. population, compared with Europe, is a significant reason
Kevin A. Baumert, Timothy Herzog, and Jonathan Pershing, Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy (World Resources Institute, 2005): 23. Available at http://www.wri.org/publication/navigating-the-numbers
p. 231 the U.S. has the greatest disparity between rich and poor of any advanced nation
Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2003 (Worldwatch Institute, May 2003): 88. Available at http://www.worldwatch.org/node/1056
p. 231 poor families with less access... higher fertility rates
Lappe, Frances Moore, Joseph Collins, Peter Rosset, and Luis Esparza, World Hunger: Twelve Myths (Grove Press, 1998): Chapter 3.
p. 231 the rate of growth is slowing even in these countries
United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision: Highlights (New York, United Nations, 2009): 3. Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_highlights.pdf
p. 231 In Mexico City, for example... on five occasions
Nacha Cattan, “Water Cuts in May Will Last 4 Days,” McClatchy-Tribune Regional News, April 15, 2009.
p. 231 the largest city in the Western Hemisphere
United Nations Population Division, Urban Agglomerations 2007 (United Nations 2008). Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2007/2007urban_agglo.htm
p. 231 no more than 15 percent of the population lived in cities
United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision (New York, United Nations, 2006): 1. Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WUP2005/2005wup.htm
p. 231 By midway through 2008, for the first time, more than half
United Nations Population Fund, “Linking Population, Poverty and Development,” last updated May 2007. Available at http://www.unfpa.org/pds/urbanization.htm
p. 231 global urban population increased more than tenfold
United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision (New York, United Nations, 2006): 1. Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WUP2005/2005wup.htm
p. 231 all future population growth for the foreseeable future will be in urban areas
United Nations Population Fund, State of World Population 2007: Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth (UNFPA, 2007): 6. Available at http://www.un.org/partnerships/Docs/UNFPA_State%20of%20the%20World%20Report%202007.pdf
p. 231 rural population is actually expected to decrease
United Nations Population Fund, State of World Population 2007: Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth (UNFPA, 2007): 6. http://www.un.org/partnerships/Docs/UNFPA_State%20of%20the%20World%20Report%202007.pdf
p. 231 More than 90 percent of the world's continuing urban population growth
United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision (New York, United Nations, 2006): 1. Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WUP2005/2005wup.htm
p. 231 In China, for example, the urban population has increased
United Nations Statistics Division, UNSD Demographic Statistics, last updated April 22, 2009. Available at http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=POP&f=tableCode%3a1

“China has urban population of 607 million,” People's Daily Online, June 15, 2009. Available at http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90882/6678842.html
p. 232 demographers project that during the next 15 years the urban population of China
McKinsey Global Institute, Preparing for China's urban billion (McKinsey & Company, 2009). Available at http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/china_urban_summary_of_findings.asp
p. 232 When Chairman Mao took power in 1949
McKinsey Global Institute, Preparing for China's urban billion (McKinsey & Company, 2009): 51. Available at http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/china_urban_summary_of_findings.asp
p. 232 Within 20 years from now, 70 percent of China's population
McKinsey Global Institute, Preparing for China's urban billion (McKinsey & Company, 2009): 100. Available at http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/china_urban_summary_of_findings.asp
p. 232 according to the United Nations Population Fund
United Nations Population Fund, State of World Population 2007: Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth (UNFPA, 2007): 7. Available at http://www.un.org/partnerships/Docs/UNFPA_State%20of%20the%20World%20Report%202007.pdf
p. 232 overall urban population is predicted to increase 100 percent
United Nations Population Fund, State of World Population 2007: Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth (UNFPA 2007): p. 1. Available at http://www.un.org/partnerships/Docs/UNFPA_State%20of%20the%20World%20Report%202007.pdf
p. 232 In Nigeria, Lagos, the largest city, has grown
United Nations Population Division, Urban Agglomerations 2007 (United Nations, 2008). Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2007/2007urban_agglo.htm
p. 232 Lagos; Kinshasa, Congo; and Dhaka, Bangladesh, are the three fastest-growing
United Nations Population Division, Urban Agglomerations 2007 (United Nations, 2008). Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2007/2007urban_agglo.htm
p. 234 Urbanization and the Growth of Megacities [Graphic]
United Nations Population Division, Urban Agglomerations 2007 (United Nations, 2008). Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2007/2007urban_agglo.htm

Current populations: Central Intelligence Agency, “The World Factbook: Country Comparison: Population.” Available at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2119rank.html
p. 236 significant increases in energy use by urban residents
Donald W. Jones, “How Urbanization affects energy-use in developing countries,” Energy Policy (September 1991): 621-630.
p. 236 One expert on urban planning quipped that the overriding principle
Note:
This refers to Andres Duany, who has expressed this idea in two forms:
“The single most important constitutional principle is that cars must be happy.” Anne Hansem, “A love affair that's really a forced marriage,” Toronto Globe & Mail, May 18, 1992.

“After reading them one might easily conclude that they are organized, written and enforced in the name of a single objective: making cars happy.” Andres Duany, Elizabeth Plater-Zyberk, and Jeff Speck, Suburban Nation: The Rise of Sprawl and the Decline of the American Dream (New York, North Point Press, 2001): 13.
p. 236 migration from rural areas is no longer the largest factor
United Nations Population Fund, “Linking Population, Poverty and Development,” last updated May 2007. Available at http://www.unfpa.org/pds/urbanization.htm
p. 236 probably at or around 9.1 billion people
United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision: Highlights (New York, United Nations, 2009): 1. Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_highlights.pdf
p. 236 declines in the death rate precede declines in the birth rate
The World Bank, Beyond Economic Growth: Meeting the Challenges of Global Development (The World Bank, 2000): 17-18. Available at http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/beyond/beyond.htm
p. 236 was best expressed more than 60 years ago by an African head of state, Julius K. Nyerere
Al Gore, Earth in the Balance: Ecology and the Human Spirit (New York, Houghton Mifflin Company, 1992): 313-4.
p. 236 Many nations that outlaw abortion have much higher abortion rates
Susheela Singh, Deirdre Wulf, Rubina Hussain, Akinrinola Bankole, and Gilda Sedgh, Abortion Worldwide: A Decade of Uneven Progress (The Guttmacher Institute, 2009). Available at http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/AWWfullreport.pdf
p. 236 Data from countries throughout the world appear to show
Susheela Singh, Deirdre Wulf, Rubina Hussain, Akinrinola Bankole, and Gilda Sedgh, Abortion Worldwide: A Decade of Uneven Progress (The Guttmacher Institute, 2009). Available at http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/AWWfullreport.pdf
p. 236 55 percent of college graduates are now women
Souheila al-Jadda, “A veil doesn't mean 'oppressed',” USA Today, June 21, 2006. Available at http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2006-06-21-muslim-women-edit_x.htm
p. 239 the average number of children in a family was
United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision: Highlights (New York, United Nations, 2009): 68. Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_highlights.pdf
p. 239 the poorest countries with the highest death rates often have the fastest rates
See, for example, data from the CIA World Factbook:
Central Intelligence Agency, “Population Growth Rate,” The World Factbook, last accessed November 3, 2009. Available at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2002rank.html

Central Intelligence Agency, “Death Rate,” The World Factbook, last accessed November 3, 2009. Available at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2066rank.html
p. 239 Niger, with one of the highest death rates in the world
Central Intelligence Agency, “Country Comparison: Death Rate,” The World Factbook, last accessed November 3, 2009. Available at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2066rank.html
p. 239 has the youngest population of any nation
United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision: Highlights (New York, United Nations, 2009): 60. Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_highlights.pdf
p. 239 In Japan, for example, the average number of children per family
“Japan eyes demographic time bomb,” BBC News, November 19, 2007. Available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7084749.stm
p. 239 The median age in Japan... three times as high
United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision: Highlights (New York, United Nations, 2009): 4. Available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_highlights.pdf

Note:
The 2006 Revision of the World Population Prospects reported that Japan's median age was 43. The 2009 Revision, however, reports that it has risen to 44.4.
p. 239 In 1960, there were 5.1 people in the U.S. workforce paying into the Social Security system... two-for-one ratio
Social Security Administration, 2004 OASDI Trustees Report, last accessed November 3, 2009. Available at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR04/IV_LRest.html#wp222190
p. 240 Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon has cited the impact of climate change
Ban Ki-moon, “A Climate Culprit in Darfur,” The Washington Post, June 16, 2007. Available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/15/AR2007061501857.html
p. 240 during the Cold War, many conservatives... co-chairman of Planned Parenthood
Michelle Goldberg, The Means of Reproduction: Sex, Power, and the Future of the World (Penguin Press, 2009).

“Sex, Power, Women and 'The Future of the World,'” Fresh Air from WHYY, April 13, 2009. Available at http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=103022290
p. 240 The most successful programs... “one-stop shopping”
Thoraya Obaid, interview with author, April 10, 2009.
p. 240 There appears to be a correlation between women who seek further education
United Nations Population Division, “Empowering Women,” last accessed November 3, 2009. Available at http://www.unfpa.org/gender/empowerment.htm
p. 240 In areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan controlled by the Taliban
“Taliban threats close Pakistan schools,” Associated Press, January 17, 2009. Available at http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2009-01-17-pakistan-threat_N.htm
p. 241 the Bush-Cheney administration to support international fertility-management programs
“Obama lifts ban on abortion funds,” BBC News, January 24, 2009. Available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7847651.stm
p. 241 The U.S. policies have been reversed by President Obama
“Obama lifts ban on abortion funds,” BBC News, January 24, 2009. Available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7847651.stm